Thirty-five percent is a forecast, seventy is already counted

The IT Home page is stamped 2026/10/21 14:39:44 and rests on a Cailian report. The judgment first: what is already stated for the first half is an L2 share of new passenger cars above 70 percent, plus test roads, permits, and distance. The 95 percent and the L3 share above 35 percent in 2030 are expectations. They are not shares already reached.

Wan Gang, honorary chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, said on October 21 at the opening of the 2026 World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference that in the first half of 2026 the share of new passenger cars with L2 driver assistance had passed 70 percent. He expects that share to reach more than 95 percent in 2030. The 70 percent is a first-half statement. The 95 percent is attached to an expectation.

The same remarks give first-half test totals: 57,000 kilometers of open test roads nationwide, more than 20,000 test and demonstration permits, and more than 220 million kilometers of cumulative testing. Those are totals through the first half, not targets for 2030. He then expects L3 automated-driving penetration to pass 35 percent in 2030. The 35 percent is an expectation. The page does not give today's L3 share, so the base that 35 percent would rise from is not on this page.

The page also says the first mandatory national standard for L3 and L4 intelligent-connected-vehicle automated-driving safety was published this August and is planned to take effect on July 1, 2027. Publication and a planned effective date are two steps. This page does not say the standard is already in force.

Another date should not be folded into Wan Gang's remarks. On September 19, Zhang Xiaoyu, chief scientist of China Changan Automobile Group and executive vice president of Chongqing Changan Automobile, said at a different forum that L3 would reach mass production in 2027 and that L4 would begin commercial operation in 2028. That is his expectation. It is not the same person, and not the same meeting, as Wan Gang's expectation for 2030 penetration.

Wan Gang places the first-half share above 70 percent after lower costs for new sensors and systems, and after large AI models. Both are background he supplies. This page does not say how far costs fell, or which metric a model changed. The next paragraph opens with higher-level automated driving landing faster, dated through the first half of 2026, and only then gives roads, permits, and distance. Faster landing is a description. The three figures remain totals already accumulated in the first half. Zhang Xiaoyu spoke at the 2026 China Automotive Industry Development (TEDA) International Forum, and the page carries his title through executive vice president of Chongqing Changan Automobile Co., Ltd. The venue and the title can be checked. Mass production in 2027 and commercial operation in 2028 remain his expectations at that forum. They cannot be rewritten as lines Wan Gang delivered at the World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference.