Amjad Masad
@amasad
Very few things in nature are true long-term exponentials. Most follow S-curves.
I saw this when I worked at Facebook. What looked like clean exponential growth was actually a series of overlapping S-curves, each driven by technological breakthroughs and/or adoption waves.
AI is probably the same. That doesn’t mean progress will have to slow down, but sustained exponential growth isn’t automatic either.
