Gary Marcus

Anthropic is absolutely terrible at a fundamental, basic piece of math and economics called “expected utility”.   If I offer you 10% chance of winning $100, your expected utility is $10.    If I promise you that I will own a $30 trillion dollar market but I have a fart’s chance in a windstorm of owning that, call it 0.01%, my expected value is (if we ignore intermediate outcomes) is $30 billion. You can’t get to a $2 trillion valuation if you factor in the likelihood that the company won’t flourish. You can only get there by largely ignoring all the ways things would go wrong. All the massive liability they may face? Not really factored in. Competition? Price wars? Rising interest rates? Open source? Likely eventual shift to local models? All scarcely factored in.   If I tell you that there is a 10% chance of annihilating humanity, the expected value is a loss of 800 million people, which would be by far the worst disaster in human history.