Rohan Paul

FT published this piece: AI agents could cost US banks $500B by winning savers better deposit rates. Banks earn about two-thirds of income from the spread between deposit rates and asset yields. And agentic AI raises deposit betas by flagging, or sweeping, idle balances into money-market funds. JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo hold $1.6 tn of non-interest-bearing deposits, 16% of liabilities. Repricing that book at 3% costs about $47B a year, nearly half their combined earnings. The $500B figure is not an annual profit hit. In US bank acquisitions, the core deposit intangible, the present value of funding cheaper than wholesale, is typically 2–3% of balances (Mercer Capital; about 2.5% in 2026 deals). Applied to roughly 80% of the industry’s ~$20tn of deposits, that franchise value is about $500B, roughly one-tenth of listed US bank equity (S&P Capital IQ). It disappears only if core deposits permanently earn a market rate.