Rohan Paul

The IMF just published its latest forecasts and it assume no extra productivity growth from AI, and the report finds that economy-wide data still show little effect on wages, jobs or measured productivity, despite gains on specific tasks. > The surge in AI hardware trade comes mostly from higher prices rather than more units shipped, and rising memory chip costs are already pushing up core-goods inflation in some rich economies. > In the IMF’s models, an AI bust costs the world economy almost twice what an AI boom adds: 1.1% of output lost by 2028, against 0.6% gained by 2029. > AI hardware trade has roughly tripled in value since 2019 because prices rose, not because more was shipped, with Taiwan and Korea supplying 62% of net exports and the US and China taking over 75% of net imports.